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Over 100 countries are exploring adoption of India Stack's digital public infrastructure model, from digital identity to payments systems.

Economic growth correlates with energy demand. Historically, fossil fuels drive this growth, with renewables typically gaining share only after economies mature. However, recent data suggests India may bypass the extended fossil fuel era entirely.

Last year, India overtook Germany as the third largest generator of electricity from wind and solar. The recent analysis “India’s electrotech fast-track: where China built on coal, India is building on sun” by the energy think tank Ember shows India’s industrialisation increasingly happens outside of historically long phases of fossil powered energy.

Comparisons with China, the global renewable energy leader, at equivalent income levels of USD 11,000 PPP (China reached this in 2012) reveal stark differences:

These numbers tell a compelling story. At a similar level development, India’s reliance on fossil fuels (India is the 2nd largest net-oil importer after China) is therefore much lower and electrification levels are growing fast. This will increase India’s energy sovereignty and impact adoption of clean energy technology. Solar panels, grid-scale battery storage, and electric vehicles have become substantially cheaper and India is building out its own ecosystem.

This will have two clear impacts:

The mobility sector, one of Europe’s traditional sectors, is already impacted by the shift towards clean energy:

This will require the European automotive industry to adapt accordingly. As I had reported in prior issues, East Asian and domestic competitors are already producing EVs in India and are ramping up production for export to Europe and the US as well. On the back of India’s large and growing automotive market, these players will therefore increase competition in other markets as well thanks to better margin profiles.

But also the supply side is developing fast. India already has the capacity to produce 120 GW of solar modules, which makes India self-sufficient following a twelvefold increase in just 10 years. Solar cells increased to 18 GW from basically zero a decade ago.

To build out the ecosystem, India is increasingly expanding its budget for climate resilience and now allocates around 5.6% of its GDP for broad climate action, according to India’s union finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman. A comparison to European levels is difficult given the various different states of development and classifications of budget usages (India heavily weighs adaptation and development schemes in this figure), but the allocation can be considered substantial.

One key sector that is under development and enjoys Indo-European attention is green hydrogen:

Overall, India’s cleantech trajectory is visibly accelerating and impacting supply chains and consumer markets. European businesses must be aware not only of the opportunities, as several renewable energy players already do, but challenges alike. Mobility is one sector of fast adoption, and whole ecosystems and supply chains are being built around those that will eventually increase competition in markets outside of India as well.

Sources: Ember, Times of India, Fuelcellsworks, H2 View

Technological developments are often perceived as pure private enterprise successes. Historically however, whether it’s semiconductor developments or telecommunications, the underlying factors were public resources, investments, and partnerships. The India Stack, a set of open APIs and digital public goods for identity, data, and payments, is such an example. It provides an infrastructure and operating layer that allows inclusive technological developments in the digital age, built at scale. And over 100 countries globally have expressed interest in adopting its strategy.

India has had great success with the India Stack and the numbers speak for themselves:

Building on this foundation, India is now positioning itself for the AI era. The India Stack’s success is about to be replicated in the AI age as well in order to secure strategic autonomy and inclusivity at scale. India’s AI Stack follows a five-layer approach:

The India Stack and AI Stack are ambitious, and already successful, public infrastructure models that provide the underlying layer for private business development that is highly inclusive, cost-efficient, and scalable. I’ve covered data centre and infrastructure developments several times before and think we will see many more ambitious projects coming. European businesses that intend to tap into India’s technology markets should be aware of its potentials and structure in order to be able to integrate and compete successfully. European policymakers and businesses alike have much to learn from this model.

Sources: India Stack, The Economic Times, Government of India

India is gaining focus for international investments and Bertelsmann, via its investment arm BI, announced that it has increased its stake with Lets Transport to over 80%. Lets Transport is a platform that connects India’s independent truck drivers with businesses of all sizes, sort of an “Uber for trucks”.

India’s logistics market is highly fragmanted, but around USD 300 billion in size and growing at an 8-9% CAGR. With European logistics players such as DHL, Rhenus or Fiege increasing their presence in India (see past issues of India Rising), BI’s announcement confirms the market potential and the trajectory since its initial investment in the platform from 2018.

The numbers for Lets Transport confirm the potential:

Bertelsmann has been present in India for over 40 years through various business segments and is increasing its focus on the country. I expect more corporate investments to follow as European businesses deepen their India commitments and build local market knowledge.

Sources: Handelsblatt

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This week: India's First Computers: A British Import and Indigenous Innovation

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